Quantitative Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation Based on Transfer Entropy

Zhang Yun-peng

Abstract


The frequent changes of climate and intense human activities are changing the cycling of water resources. In order to explore the contribution of climate change and human activities to water resources variation, the author, on the basis of variation research, uses the transfer entropy method to quantify the influence of human activities and climate change on runoff variation. Taking the three runoff variations at Huaxian (HX) Station in Weihe River Basin from 1951 to 2010 as example, the author calculates the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to water resources variation, yielding the following results: (1) For the variation in 1971, 60.3% is attributable to climate change, and 39.7% to human activities; (2) For the variation in 1982, 43.5% is attributable to climate change and 56.5% to human activities; (3) For the variation in 1994, 45.8% is attributable to climate change and 54.2% to human activities. Through quantitative attribution analysis, the author hopes to provide a theoretical reference for the study of the driving mechanism of water resources evolution in a changing environment.


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Revista de la Facultad de Ingeniería,

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