Small-sample MTBF estimation for a CNC machine tool

Xiaolei Li

Abstract


MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) indicates the life and reliability of machine tools. The research into small-sample MTBF estimation of high grade CNC machine tools has great theoretical and engineering significance. After identifying the prior distribution according to the historical failure data of similar mass-produced machine tools, the authors carry out real-time reliable life prediction of a high-grade machine tool by using the Bayesian method to integrate the prior information and small-sample failure data of the machine tool. The MTBF of the five-axis machining center meets the pattern of 2-parameter Weibull distribution (b=1.9093, a=919.4951). The MTBF point estimate of the machine tool is 815.80(h), and the interval estimate is [576.70(h), 1,232.42(h)]. Applicable to small sampling conditions and giving thorough consideration to field and test information of similar product, the method proposed in this paper provides a good reference to the reliable life prediction and assessment of special machinanical products with only small-sample test data.


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References


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